times when crowds suck, first in a series

Just to keep a personal marker, and because I’m becoming more and more convinced that there is some serious sampling on the dependent variable in information market / crowd accumulation for the purposes of forecasting, of times when crowds v experts don’t sit well with crowds.

The full story/report is at Foreign Policy/Center for American Progress, but the point to highlight is the ‘public perception’ versus the expert community (page 6 of the report). How can we test to see if people are stupid or smart vis-a-vis the experts in this case?

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