Monthly Archives: February 2007

‘independence’, markets vs. guesses

One problem with the assumption that crowds work is the independence assumption. Particularly with regard to markets, people don’t buy a stock as a guess as to what the stock is going to do, per se. That is, I don’t start by saying that IBM should be $50/share, and if it’s not then I’m going […]

times when crowds suck, first in a series

Just to keep a personal marker, and because I’m becoming more and more convinced that there is some serious sampling on the dependent variable in information market / crowd accumulation for the purposes of forecasting, of times when crowds v experts don’t sit well with crowds. The full story/report is at Foreign Policy/Center for American […]