July 2009
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Month July 2009

freefalling

I found myself watching Jerry Maguire today, and I am struck again at just how brilliant this scene is, with Tom Cruise having just gotten fired and (seemingly) salvaging the one big client that will save him. On the way out, he’s searching the radio for something to sing to, and after a few miscues, finds himself shouting the Tom Petty song, “Free Falling”:

The greatness comes from the exuberance of his singing, combined with the lyrics of the song, combined with the events that unfold a bit later on. I am crushed with pleasure of seeing craft when directors make this kind of thing work.

It’s also a shame that the ‘you complete me’ line became such a pop culture joke, because it’s actually kind of touching (like the great scene with ‘In Your Eyes’ from Say Anything, popularity sometimes ruins its best material by over-repetition-to-cliche).

Funny aside. At my friend Brian’s wedding, I was scouring for hors d’oeuvres with one of his other friends (whose name I forget).

Me: Ooh, look a tray of food!
Friend of Brian, to tray-serving woman: What’cha got there? Anything good?
Woman: They’re mini-cheese quiches wi…
F.o.B, taking three off the tray: You had me at hello. You. Had. Me. At. Hello.

Amazon doesn't care about its customers

Yesterday, my partner emailed me with the odd question, “did you somehow “return” the book 1984?

No, it turns out that Amazon re-appropriated the book they sold me. Thanks for the refund, go ahead and take the book back, apparently. Better than just taking it I guess.

From the Amazon forums

Here’s the response from Amazon CS:

The Kindle edition books Animal Farm by George Orwell. Published by MobileReference (mobi) & Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984) by George Orwell. Published by MobileReference (mobi) were removed from the Kindle store and are no longer available for purchase. When this occured, your purchases were automatically refunded. You can still locate the books in the Kindle store, but each has a status of not yet available. Although a rarity, publishers can decide to pull their content from the Kindle store.

I don’t see anything about this in their terms of service:

Upon your payment of the applicable fees set by Amazon, Amazon grants you the non-exclusive right to keep a permanent copy of the applicable Digital Content and to view, use, and display such Digital Content an unlimited number of times, solely on the Device or as authorized by Amazon as part of the Service and solely for your personal, non-commercial use. Digital Content will be deemed licensed to you by Amazon under this Agreement unless otherwise expressly provided by Amazon.

But the good people at Amazon don’t give a crap. Incredibly, I received a Kindle literally two days ago as a birthday present. I have gone from pretty excited to go screw yourself, Amazon, in 48 hours. It is a horrible practice. What’s to say that another publisher won’t do the same? Why doesn’t their terms of service provide protections for users?

Assessment: Amazon does not care about its customers.

I was going to encourage my students to buy their books this year on Amazon instead of buying them at the CU bookstore. Now, why should I bother?

The pain! The pain!

I’ve been sitting on this graphic, pulled from a hospital form I once received, or sign I once snagged. If you or someone you know has been through anything at all, you’ve seen this chart:

This is my continuum??

This is my continuum??

I have always meant to write about the attempted power of medical hegemony captured in this sign, that the appropriate range of emotion you are supposed to exhibit ranges from big smiles to sad and crying. Because when I feel hurt, my face is not on the chart. My face is more like this:

What number is this, doctor?

What number is this, doctor?

Now comes news that swearing helps ease pain. I feel vindicated, you controlling SOBs.

Regulating financial activities or organizations?

There seems to be two directions to travel if we want to impose regulation on how finance works. The first is an organizational solution to the problem, the second is an activity-based (and cross-organizational) solution to the problem.

The first approach, then, would impose regulation on financial services organizations. I would include a pretty wide range of organizations: commercial banks, investment banks (not that there are any of these left), hedge funds, pension funds, mutual fund (and holding) companies, private equity funds, futures trading companies, REIT funds. This is a partial list. But conceptually, it’s any organization that participates in the keeping and investing of customers’ funds, business funds, or state funds.

Some organizations are multi-headed hydras in this sense – Citigroup does all of these things and more, nationally and internationally. Goldman Sachs trades its own accounts (called proprietary trading), brokers government bonds, manages mutual funds, and manages financing for its clients (Mergers & Acquisitions, bond issuance, etc). But your local probably does more than one of these things, and your state’s pension fund does too.

This episode of This American Life captures some of the regulatory gamesmanship that happens between federal/state financial regulatory agencies and the organizations they are supposed to be overseeing.

Still, if you think the problem is that these are sprawling organizations that are too big to fail, too big to manage, too influential to be regulated, then the answer is to break them down into their constituent parts or else to regulate them all as the simplest thing – banks. This is the reason why Galbraith’s suggestion is to give over regulation of systemic risk to the FDIC: “If institutions like hedge and private equity funds are to be considered as posing systemic risks similar to banks, they can be declared to be banks, and regulated as such. Money market mutual funds, which are now subject to insurance, can be reconstituted and regulated as narrow banks…The problem of regulation will be simplified, if we recognize that the crisis presents an opportunity to simplify, restructure and downsize the entire structure financial system.”

The challenge with this approach is that financial institutions can differ pretty dramatically, while at the same time fulfilling the same financial function. So OTC derivatives traded by a pension fund are monitored differently than the same trades by a commercial bank.

The alternative approach, which is more in line with what I would want to do, is to care less about the institutional forms of financial firms and more about the activities that they engage in. For instance, in order to securitize debt it is necessary to create a new corporation to transform that debt into investor shares.

no limited liability corp, no securitization

no limited liability corp, no securitization

If we had a functioning rating system, we could use it to price these derivatives independently of the financial services organizations selling/buying them. Still, one alternative is to create an independent entity that doesn’t just slap a ‘good to go’ label on the things, but actually values them. But there remains the problem that, if a pension fund in Wisconsin needs to have a bond rated AAA in order to buy it, financial services orgs will try desperately find a way to slap a AAA rating on it (sounds like hot dog-making to me).

Or, if the SEC wanted to exceed its authority, or if we wanted to make life more difficult for financial services orgs and easier for the rest of us, we might consider disallowing these kinds of limited liability corporations. First, they are in the Caymans and other places only because tax liabilities are lower and secrecy is higher. It is just another form of regulatory arbitrage. And if there is just no possible way to structure derivatives in the US, another alternative is to simply disallow OTC derivatives altogether and have everyone trade stuff on existing exchanges. The analogy for me here is that 99% of us seem to get by with the denominations of $1, $5, $10, $20, $100, etc. It is not perfectly efficient. But the benefits of standardized, transparent commodities I think outweighs the costs to the tailored efficiency for individual firms. (this deserves its own argument, and it’s provocative: it may be the case that the public benefits of derivatives is small. Period.). The fact that Tim Geithner can say he receives letters from firms who argue they need OTC derivatives notwithstanding, we do not need them.

I don’t know how we might accomplish these goals, but at minimum, one suggestion is transparency. We ought to know who controls these limited liability corporations, what assets back them, and a plain-english translation of their values. And if that is not possible, if the only people who can accurately gauge the value of these assets are their issuing organizations, then these instruments should be disallowed.

Something doesn't square

How can it be that the NYT reports that JP Morgan is 110% awesome: “The strong showing may put to rest some worries that the bank was allowed to pay back its $25 billion taxpayer investment too early, after it passed the Treasury Department’s stress test in May.”

But the Wall Street Journal can report the day before that the Option-ARM mortgage loans are failing at a remarkably scary rate (37% of these loans are 60-days past due, 19% in foreclosure) – this is worse than the subprime mortgage ‘crisis’ of 2007 – and that JP Morgan:

holds $40.2 billion in option ARMs that the bank acquired when it purchased most of Washington Mutual Inc. last year. The Seattle company’s banking operations were seized by regulators, and the holding company filed for bankruptcy protection.

The New York company said in a filing it has some exposure to an additional $46.5 billion in option-ARMs sitting in complex off-balance-sheet entities. J.P. Morgan declined to comment.

So are they at risk of losing some good percentage of $90 billion on their books (WSJ), or should we just be focusing on their ‘stellar trading and investment results’ (NYT)? The scary other-shoe-to-drop sense of foreboding in me makes me inclined to the former. But maybe I am too simple to appreciate their awesomeness.

Hurt Locker, masculinity, madness

One of the best movies I’ve seen this year is The Hurt Locker (preview on the Youtubes), a fictional documentary-style film about a team of US bomb techs in Iraq. The premise is that a new leader of a 3-man tech team differs in style than his predecessor. The resulting tension among team members drives the story. But this is a pretty bland description of an outrageously nail-biter of a movie.

Hold your breath, it could get ugly

Hold your breath, it could get ugly

This is, to quote the NYT: “a viscerally exciting, adrenaline-soaked tour de force of suspense and surprise, full of explosions and hectic scenes of combat, but it blows a hole in the condescending assumption that such effects are just empty spectacle or mindless noise.”

There are scenes I want to show in my masculinity class, and scenes I want to show in my orgs class, and then there are scenes when I just want to say, Holy Crap, what are they getting themselves into! Seriously, if you get a chance to see this movie, it is worth your time and movie dollars.

Fight crotchety with awesomeness

I’m feeling a little like all I do is complain round here.

Dietrich. Dietrich, Dietrich, Dietrich.

Dietrich. Dietrich, Dietrich, Dietrich.

This site on the impossible cool is 99% awesomeness. Does that help to offset some of my crotchety-ness?

Apparently, I'm twitter-hopeless

The Stranger reviews Twitter, 140-characters at a time, and I’m not terribly impressed:

“We’re telling each other stories, 140 characters at a time, as they unfold. If you can’t see the value in that, you’re hopeless.”

Life in the twitter-age: A glut of information and data, a poverty of knowledge.

Hey look, the NYT is fellating Goldman Sachs again

Oh Yes, it’s their ‘trading prowess’, their ability to “embrace risks that its rivals feared to take and, for the most part, manage those risks better than its rivals dreamed possible.”

Don’t pay attention to those last few sentences, though. The $13 billion government subsidy via the bailout of AIG, and the $28 billion in free money backed by the FDIC. Trading prowess! Embracing risks! Clap louder!

What criticism with knowledge looks like

I complained last week that Duncan Watts’ editorial was an argument without much substance, effectively an argument based on deep knowledge of networks but shallow knowledge of markets.

At the end of last week, James K. Galbraith testified for the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology. And it was pretty awesome. First, it was a takedown of the Fed’s potential role as the main regulatory body in charge of system risk (which he thinks would be a bad idea because it should be the main, not secondary goal of the regulatory body; and because the Fed kind of historically sucks badly at identifying systemic risk). Second, he went on to talk about ‘too big to fail’:

Would the country be worse off with a smaller, simpler financial system, largely operating out of institutions called banks and thrifts, themselves reorganized, downsized, broken up, more competitive and less profitable than the financial sector has been in recent years? I can see no reason to permit the continued existence, let alone to foster the market dominance, of financial institutions so large as to be unmanageable by their own top leadership, let alone efficiently regulated by public authority. Edward Liddy, CEO of AIG, has written that he realized quite early on that the firm was “too complex, too unwieldy and too opaque” to manage as a going concern. In general, “too big to fail” is a synonym for “too big to manage” and “too big to regulate.” Such institutions exist, in part, to help with international tax evasion, to evade regulations, to project political power, to facilitate the kind of “financial innovation” that is the essence of systemic risk. They are intrinsically unsafe. An appropriate goal of public policy would be to shrink them, permitting other institutions of more reasonable size, more conservative practice and greater alignment with public purpose to grow into their market space.

I agree so much with this perspective in general and this statement in particular. It’s worth a longer, more sustained argument to suggest that financial services organizations are not entitled to their business model just because it’s ‘working’ for them. But for now, compare Galbraith to the statement by Robert C. Merton looking for a way to mush-mouth an apology for financial innovation:

You’ll hear in this case as in the past, “Look at all this financial innovation or financial engineering–it’s caused too much complexity, and now the system has run off the tracks.” To that I would say, structurally, one would expect that in the case of a successful innovation, the infrastructure to support it properly will lag behind. Why is that? It’s because if you have 100 innovations, maybe 2 of them will be successful. So it is not practical to build a full infrastructure–regulatory, educational, et cetera–for all 100 innovations. Innovations are going to run ahead of the infrastructure. That, we have to recognize, is structural. It’s not about bad people, it’s not about incompetent people, it’s not about greedy people. It’s not about having a market system or a nonmarket system. Whether the problems are addressed by external regulation or a combination of that along with internal regulation–whatever set of ways, we have to be prepared when innovations come in to have some degree of oversight modulation. If you do too much of that and you stifle innovation, that’s not good. If you do none at all, that’s not good either. So there’s something in between. Sometimes we don’t do enough of it, or the growth of innovation is too quick, but the point is that there is a reason why you will typically find that financial crises are often connected with what are perceived as new things, big changes–innovations.

For Merton, the problem is just that we have so much great innovation and we can’t tell which ones are going to be successful, that we couldn’t possibly have infrastructure and regulation to support them all.

It’s just that Galbraith’s argument is just so much more convincing.