Comments on: Data mining, airlines, precursors http://www.rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/15/data-mining-airlines-precursors.html Economic Sociology from the Ground Up Fri, 30 Sep 2011 15:24:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Peter http://www.rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/15/data-mining-airlines-precursors.html#comment-32 Peter Wed, 16 Jan 2008 02:32:50 +0000 http://rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/15/data-mining-airlines-precursors.html#comment-32 Good question. They're not equivalent for a few reasons (though I may be answering your question without answering what you are asking). For one, insurance estimates are about restitution, while contingent event analysis is about prevention. There is some prevention in insurance contracts to mitigate moral hazard, but the impulse in that field is to find replacement value. In the contingent event analysis, the aim is prevention or somesuch - so, how can we understand why people commit violence (or better, don't commit violence)? If 6 factors in conjunction lead to violence, or an airplane crash, how do we determine what these are, which is most important, and how they are temporally connected? <em>Especially</em> in the case where airplanes don't crash, or violence is not committed, how can we determine before the fact what is going to continue to lead to a non-event? It's an evaluation of an uncertain/ambiguous outcome (and in this sense, similar to insurance estimates), but it seems to be a different problem. Is this as confusing for you to read as it is for me to write? Good question. They’re not equivalent for a few reasons (though I may be answering your question without answering what you are asking). For one, insurance estimates are about restitution, while contingent event analysis is about prevention. There is some prevention in insurance contracts to mitigate moral hazard, but the impulse in that field is to find replacement value.

In the contingent event analysis, the aim is prevention or somesuch – so, how can we understand why people commit violence (or better, don’t commit violence)? If 6 factors in conjunction lead to violence, or an airplane crash, how do we determine what these are, which is most important, and how they are temporally connected? Especially in the case where airplanes don’t crash, or violence is not committed, how can we determine before the fact what is going to continue to lead to a non-event? It’s an evaluation of an uncertain/ambiguous outcome (and in this sense, similar to insurance estimates), but it seems to be a different problem.

Is this as confusing for you to read as it is for me to write?

]]> By: jlena http://www.rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/15/data-mining-airlines-precursors.html#comment-31 jlena Tue, 15 Jan 2008 20:35:50 +0000 http://rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/15/data-mining-airlines-precursors.html#comment-31 what's the difference, sir, between a contingent event analysis and, say, an insurance estimate for a piece of art? what’s the difference, sir, between a contingent event analysis and, say, an insurance estimate for a piece of art?

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