Comments on: Falsefiability http://markets.ericaandpeter.com/feeder/?FeederAction=clicked&feed=Comments+on+Articles+%28RSS2%29&seed=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rethinkingmarkets.org%2F2008%2F01%2F07%2Ffalsefiability.html%23comment-&seed_title=Falsefiability Sat, 06 Mar 2010 23:58:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Peter http://markets.ericaandpeter.com/feeder/?FeederAction=clicked&feed=Comments+on+Articles+%28RSS2%29&seed=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rethinkingmarkets.org%2F2008%2F01%2F07%2Ffalsefiability.html%23comment-30&seed_title=Falsefiability/comment-page-1#comment-30 Peter Tue, 15 Jan 2008 12:21:11 +0000 http://rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/07/falsefiability.html#comment-30 Yes, this is what I was trying to get at. The issue comes up in my work on futures markets, as it turns out that the tipping point from face-to-face to electronic trading actually happened <em>sometime</em> in the recent past years but it's not clear <em>when</em>. In retrospect you can look backwards and say 'it was Eurex' or '9/11' or the rise of hedge funds. But while it was occurring, it was not at all clear that any of these events was inevitable or even significant. Or rather, there were enough misses and non-changing events to mask the seeming-significance of the real tipping-point events. Tricksy Yes, this is what I was trying to get at. The issue comes up in my work on futures markets, as it turns out that the tipping point from face-to-face to electronic trading actually happened sometime in the recent past years but it’s not clear when. In retrospect you can look backwards and say ‘it was Eurex’ or ‘9/11′ or the rise of hedge funds. But while it was occurring, it was not at all clear that any of these events was inevitable or even significant.

Or rather, there were enough misses and non-changing events to mask the seeming-significance of the real tipping-point events.

Tricksy

]]> By: Andrew http://markets.ericaandpeter.com/feeder/?FeederAction=clicked&feed=Comments+on+Articles+%28RSS2%29&seed=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rethinkingmarkets.org%2F2008%2F01%2F07%2Ffalsefiability.html%23comment-25&seed_title=Falsefiability/comment-page-1#comment-25 Andrew Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:38:52 +0000 http://rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/07/falsefiability.html#comment-25 It's still an interesting question, though. There are a host of turning point / tipping point dynamics that are still in play, though I'd think that any single argument would depend on narrative plausibility rather than strict standards of falsifiability. What I like about the question is the implied nesting of temporal perspectives: how would we interpret a present claim made about the significance of a contingent future event from the perspective of an even more future state from which the present claim is a past event? It’s still an interesting question, though. There are a host of turning point / tipping point dynamics that are still in play, though I’d think that any single argument would depend on narrative plausibility rather than strict standards of falsifiability.

What I like about the question is the implied nesting of temporal perspectives: how would we interpret a present claim made about the significance of a contingent future event from the perspective of an even more future state from which the present claim is a past event?

]]> By: Peter http://markets.ericaandpeter.com/feeder/?FeederAction=clicked&feed=Comments+on+Articles+%28RSS2%29&seed=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rethinkingmarkets.org%2F2008%2F01%2F07%2Ffalsefiability.html%23comment-24&seed_title=Falsefiability/comment-page-1#comment-24 Peter Wed, 09 Jan 2008 03:35:54 +0000 http://rethinkingmarkets.org/2008/01/07/falsefiability.html#comment-24 Welp, I guess the NH primary makes this a moot point vis-a-vis Obama/Clinton... Welp, I guess the NH primary makes this a moot point vis-a-vis Obama/Clinton…

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